Has Las Vegas Real Estate Hit Bottom?

Posted by Robin Camacho | Current | Monday 3 August 2009 3:27 AM

Do you recall what you were doing on the afternoon of April 24? I generally can barely recall what I was doing yesterday, but I will always remember April 24. That's the day the Las Vegas real estate market appeared to hit bottom.

Unlike most Realtors, I've been extremely busy for the past 2 years. My LasVegasAdvisor.com clients are generally buying second homes or investment homes, and are savvy enough to be buying in this market, especially in the fall and winter when there is less competition for homes. So I'm always busy.

However, April 24 just felt different. Throughout late 2008 and early 2009, I'd been getting almost every offer accepted. But on April 24, I sat back in my seat at the end of the long day, reflecting on the fact that I'd had two offers refused that day. Suddenly, multiple counters on REOs was again the norm, just as in the summer of 2008.

No one has been willing to call this the bottom of the market, but simply for fear of what might happen next in an economy that only Great Depression-aged folks have any experience with. I'm one of those who hasn't been willing to say we've hit bottom. However, I've been quietly telling my buyers since late April that they'd better buy right now, because prices were stabilizing.

Prices were stable in May and June. For July, we actually saw a 1% increase in the median price of single family homes; the first price increase in a long time. The figures you'll read in the newspaper show prices holding steady for July; however, those figures include condos, age-restricted communities and mobile homes. Since these are all a fairly insignificant part of the market, statistically speaking, we don't track these. For single family homes, the price has risen slightly.

Like I've said dozens of times, we won't know it's the bottom of the market until it's in the past. On April 24, I wasn't ready to call it the bottom, but I had a strong hunch it was. Only time will prove me right, but I think we're looking at the bottom in the rearview mirror. We may be slow in rebounding, but I can't envision prices falling further across the board.

I expect to see prices hold firm throughout the slow season coming up, barring a major catastrophic event such as a collapsing economy. Or banks releasing those phantom 30,000 nonexistent REOs we keep hearing about. If you haven't bought, you should find less competition (fewer multiple offers) throughout the winter. But expect this winter to be the last time you'll find Las Vegas foreclosures at these prices.

The pendulum is ever so slowly starting to swing the other way – finally. Come February, expect buyers to rush back to the market and drive prices up somewhat higher.

 

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